Review : Projected Future Climate Changes in the Context of Geological and Geomorphological Hazards
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  • Auteurs
    Felicity Liggins, Richard A. Betts, Bill McGuire
  • Année de publication
    2010
  • Journal
    Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society
  • Abstract (dans sa langue originale)

    On palaeoclimate time scales, enhanced levels of geological and geomorphological activity have been linked to climatic factors, including examples of processes that are expected to be important in current and future anthropogenic climate change. Planetary warmingleading to increased rainfall, ice-mass loss and rising sea levels is potentially relevantto geospheric responses in many geologically diverse regions. Anthropogenic climatechange, therefore, has the potential to alter the risk of geological and geomorphologicalhazards through the twenty-first century and beyond. Here, we review climate changeprojections from both global and regional climate models in the context of geohazards.In assessing the potential for geospheric responses to climate change, it appears prudentto consider regional levels of warming of 2◦C above average pre-industrial temperature as being potentially unavoidable as an influence on processes requiring a human adaptation response within this century. At the other end of the scale when considering changes that could be avoided by reduction of emissions, scenarios of unmitigated warming exceeding 4◦C in the global average include much greater local warming in some regions. However, considerable further work is required to better understand the uncertainties associated with these projections, uncertainties inherent not only in the climate modelling but also in the linkages between climate change and geospheric responses.

  • Identifiant unique
    10.1098/rsta.2010.0072
  • Accès libre
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  • Apparait dans la controverse
    Le réchauffement climatique peut-il provoquer des séismes ?
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  • Le réchauffement climatique peut-il provoquer des séismes ? Oui ou Non
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